My projections and best bets breakdown last week was robust. This week’s version will be much sleeker.
Because I’m lazy.
In this article each week I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 1 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 1 game ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday morning and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Odds as of Wed., 3:15 pm ET.
Home Team
Road Team
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge
KC
LAC
-4
-6.5
-2.5
NYG
CAR
-2
-1.75
0.25
PIT
NE
2
-0.75
-2.75
NO
TB
2.5
1.5
-1
CLE
NYJ
-6
-5
1
BAL
MIA
-3.5
-4
-0.5
JAX
IND
4
2.5
-1.5
DET
WAS
-1.5
-1.5
0
LAR
ATL
-10.5
-12.25
-1.75
SF
SEA
-9.5
-9.25
0.25
DEN
HOU
-10
-9.25
0.75
LV
ARI
-5.5
-1.5
4
DAL
CIN
8
6
-2
GB
CHI
-10
-10.25
-0.25
BUF
TEN
-10
-10.25
-0.25
PHI
MIN
-2.5
-2.75
-0.25
Based on my current projections, I’m willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.
Chiefs -4 vs. Chargers
Steelers +2 vs. Patriots
Rams -10.5 vs. Falcons
Cardinals +5.5 at Raiders
Packers -10 vs. Bears
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Chargers at Chiefs matchup page.
Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
TV: Prime Video
Chargers at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
Spread: Chiefs -4
Over/Under: 54.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -200, Chargers +175
Chargers at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
Spread: Chargers – 33% bets, 40% money
Over/Under: Under – 28% bets, 55% money
Moneyline: Chargers – 35% bets, 44% money
Chargers at Chiefs: Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers Injuries
WR Keenan Allen (hamstring): OUT
TE Donald Parham (hamstring): OUT
CB J.C. Jackson (ankle): Questionable
Chargers Injury News
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries
CB Trent McDuffie (hamstring, IR): OUT
RT Lucas Niang (knee, PUP): OUT
TE Blake Bell (hip, IR): OUT
K Harrison Butker (ankle): OUT
Chiefs Injury News
Chargers at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 32-18-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) in Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs Trends
HC Andy Reid: 33-20-1 ATS (21.8% ROI) in division (with Chiefs only)
HC Andy Reid: 24-13 ATS (27.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs only)
QB Patrick Mahomes: 13-8-1 ATS (19.5%) in primetime (including postseason)
Chargers at Chiefs: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.067
11
0.006
14
3
Total SR
45.3%
14
40.3%
8
-6
Total DVOA
11.8%
11
0.5%
16
5
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.088
5
0.038
23
18
Total SR
47.4%
5
47.1%
29
24
Total DVOA
16.0%
4
4.5%
24
20
Los Angeles Chargers Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Herbert
EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
AY/A: 10.0 (No. 2)
QBR: 84.8 (No. 3)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.0 (No. 3)
2021: Justin Herbert
EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)
Career: Justin Herbert
AY/A: 7.6
QB Elo per Game: 78.4
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.435
1
-0.125
8
7
Total SR
58.6%
1
42.9%
12
11
Total DVOA
44.5%
1
-33.7%
3
2
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.14
2
0.044
24
22
Total SR
51.1%
1
46.8%
27
26
Total DVOA
18.1%
3
4.8%
26
23
Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Statistics
2022: Patrick Mahomes
EPA + CPOE: 0.358 (No. 1)
AY/A: 11.8 (No. 1)
QBR: 94.1 (No. 1)
ATS Value vs. Average: 5.2 (No. 1)
2021: Patrick Mahomes
EPA + CPOE: 0.146 (No. 3)
AY/A: 7.6 (No. 11)
QBR: 67.7 (No. 5)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.9 (No. 3)
Career: Patrick Mahomes
AY/A: 8.7
QB Elo per Game: 120.0
Key Matchup: TE Travis Kelce vs. Chargers Pass Defense
For the first two years of his career, All-Pro S Derwin James — within DC Gus Bradley’s defense — effectively erased Kelce in their head-to-head matchups.
2018, Week 1: 1-6-0 receiving | six targets
2018, Week 15: 7-61-0 receiving | nine targets
2019, Week 17: 3-24-0 receiving | five targets
Enter defense-focused HC Brandon Staley with his new scheme in 2021, and all of a sudden Derwin is literally defenseless against Kelce.
2021,Week 3: 7-104-0 receiving | 11 targets
2021,Week 15: 10-191-2 receiving | 13 targets
If the Chargers can’t stop Kelce, they’re not winning this game.
Bet: Chiefs -4 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Chiefs -3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -6.5
Limit: Chiefs -5.5
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Check out our Patriots at Steelers matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Acrisure Stadium
TV: CBS
Patriots at Steelers: Consensus Lines
Spread: Patriots -2
Over/Under: 40
Moneyline: Patriots -126, Steelers +108
Patriots at Steelers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
Spread: Patriots – 35% bets, 60% money
Over/Under: Under – 74% bets, 94% money
Moneyline: Steelers – 73% bets, 81% money
Patriots at Steelers: Key Injuries
New England Patriots Injuries
RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (toe): DNP on Wed.
S Adrian Phillips (ribs): LP on Wed.
LG Cole Strange (shoulder): LP on Wed.
QB Mac Jones (back): FP on Wed.
Patriots Injury News
Pittsburgh Steelers Injuries
S Damontae Kazee (wrist, IR): OUT
S Karl Joseph (undisclosed, IR): OUT
WR Calvin Austin (foot, IR): OUT
EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral): DNP on Wed., projected OUT
RB Najee Harris (foot): LP on Wed.
CB Levi Wallace (ankle): LP on Wed.
LB Robert Spillane (eye): LP on Wed.
C Mason Cole (ankle): LP on Wed.
Steelers Injury News
Patriots at Steelers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
New England Patriots Trends
HC Bill Belichick: 29-24 ATS (8.0% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
HC Bill Belichick: 39-16 ATS (41.7% ROI) off a loss
HC Bill Belichick: 9-4 ATS (40.3% ROI) without QB Tom Brady off a loss
Pittsburgh Steelers Trends
HC Mike Tomlin: 46-23-2 ATS (29.8% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 38-33 ML (35.9% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 63-55-3 ATS (4.7% ROI) at home
HC Mike Tomlin: 87-32-1 ML (12.4% ROI) at home
HC Mike Tomlin: 14-3-2 ATS (54.1% ROI) as home underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 13-6 ML (63.1% ROI) as home underdog
Patriots at Steelers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Patriots Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.201
30
-0.174
6
-24
Total SR
47.3%
11
39.4%
7
-4
Total DVOA
-10.7%
23
-31.9%
4
-19
Patriots Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.07
10
0.006
16
6
Total SR
48.6%
4
43.5%
12
8
Total DVOA
10.5%
9
-0.6%
14
5
New England Patriots Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Mac Jones
EPA + CPOE: 0.064 (No. 16)
AY/A: 6.3 (No. 21)
QBR: 9.7 (No. 32)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 20)
2021: Mac Jones
EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
QBR: 50.9 (No. 16)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.08 (No. 24)
Career: Mac Jones
AY/A: 7.6
QB Elo per Game: -16.4
Steelers Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.117
24
0.051
18
-6
Total SR
34.4%
31
48.3%
24
-7
Total DVOA
-17.0%
26
-2.5%
13
-13
Steelers Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.051
23
-0.063
4
-19
Total SR
40.2%
30
42.5%
7
-23
Total DVOA
-11.0%
25
-12.8%
4
-21
Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Statistics
2022: Mitchell Trubisky
EPA + CPOE: -0.013 (No. 30)
AY/A: 5.6 (No. 24)
QBR: 48.0 (No. 18)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 12)
2021: Mitchell Trubisky
EPA + CPOE: N/A
AY/A: N/A
QBR: N/A
ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Mitchell Trubisky
AY/A: 7.6
QB Elo per Game: -15.9
Key Matchup: Steelers Run Defense vs. Patriots Run Offense
Last year, the Patriots had one of the best rushing offense in the league, and the Steelers had a mediocre-at-best run defense.
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
Rush EPA
-0.012
7
-0.022
27
20
Rush SR
45.7%
4
41.1%
19
15
Rush DVOA
4.9%
7
-0.8%
27
20
Adj. Line Yards
4.52
9
4.34
19
10
In Week 1, however, the script was flipped.
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
Rush EPA
-0.185
22
-0.175
12
-10
Rush SR
45.0%
15
20.0%
1
-14
Rush DVOA
-9.7%
25
-29.6%
5
-20
Adj. Line Yards
3.88
23
2.92
2
-21
Against the rebuilt Bengals offensive line in Week 1, the Steelers defensive front seven strongly asserted itself, holding RB Joe Mixon to just 3.0 yards per carry on 27 attempts.
Like the Bengals, the Patriots significantly altered their offensive line this offseason. They traded RG Shaq Mason and lost LG Ted Karras in free agency. They move OT Trent Tackle from the right side to the left, and they moved OT Isaiah Wynn from the left to the right. They moved OL Michael Onwenu from right tackle in 2020 and left guard/right tackle in 2021 to right guard this year. And they drafted LG Cole Strange in the first round.
On top of that, they shifted away from a gap-heavy power rushing attack and toward a Shanahan-style zone-blocking scheme this offseason, and the results were not positive in Week 1, as RBs Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Ty Montgomery combined for just 71 yards on 19 carries.
EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral) — the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year — is out with an injury, and his presence certainly impacts the game: He might be worth 1.5 points against the spread.
But the Patriots offense is based on the running game, and Watt’s value is primarily as a pass rusher (65 sacks in 2018-21), not as a run defender. With DTs Cameron Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, Chris Wormley and Tyson Alualu on the interior, the Steelers still could challenge the Patriots in the trenches.
Bet: Steelers +2.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Steelers +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers -0.75
Limit: Steelers +1.5
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
Check out our Falcons at Rams matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 3:05 pm ET
Location: SoFi Stadium
TV: FOX
Falcons at Rams: Consensus Lines
Spread: Rams -10.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Moneyline: Rams -600, Falcons +430
Falcons at Rams: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
Spread: Falcons – 60% bets, 76% money
Over/Under: Under – 38% bets, 91% money
Moneyline: Falcons – 7% bets, 64% money
Falcons at Rams: Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons Injuries
LB Deion Jones (Shoulder, IR): OUT
LG Jalen Mayfield (Back, IR): OUT
CB Isaiah Oliver (knee, IR): OUT
DT Marlon Davidson (knee, IR): OUT
RB Damien Williams (ribs): DNP on Wed.
Falcons Injury News
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
RB Kyren Williams (ankle, IR): OUT
G Logan Bruss (knee, IR): OUT
LB Travin Howard (groin, PUP): OUT
C Brian Allen (knee): DNP on Wed.
LT Joseph Noteboom (knee): DNP on Wed.
LS Matthew Orzech (calf): DNP on Wed.
WR Van Jefferson (knee): DNP on Wed.
Rams Injury News
Falcons at Rams: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Atlanta Falcons Trends
HC Arthur Smith: 5-3-1 ATS (15.4% ROI) on road
East Coast Teams: 115-94-8 ATS (6.3% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon game
Los Angeles Rams Trends
HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (42.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-2
HC Sean McVay: 28-22-1 ATS (9.3% ROI) against non-playoff teams
HC Sean McVay: 11-6 ATS (25.8% ROI) off a loss
Falcons at Rams: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Falcons Offense vs. Rams Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.003
20
0.175
30
10
Total SR
51.4%
5
52.6%
30
25
Total DVOA
20.3%
5
20.1%
27
22
Falcons Offense vs. Rams Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.076
27
-0.025
9
-18
Total SR
41.2%
27
44.5%
15
-12
Total DVOA
-17.1%
28
-8.5%
5
-23
Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Marcus Mariota
EPA + CPOE: 0.062 (No. 17)
AY/A: 6.5 (No. 20)
QBR: 57.9 (No. 10)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 23)
2021: Marcus Mariota
EPA + CPOE: N/A
AY/A: N/A
QBR: N/A
ATS Value vs. Average: N/A
Career: Marcus Mariota
AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: -11.3
Rams Offense vs. Falcons Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.251
31
0.131
28
-3
Total SR
40.3%
24
52.6%
30
6
Total DVOA
-45.5%
31
15.0%
25
-6
Rams Offense vs. Falcons Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.082
8
0.08
28
20
Total SR
46.6%
9
48.2%
32
23
Total DVOA
10.6%
8
11.3%
30
22
Los Angeles Rams Quarterback Statistics
2022: Matthew Stafford
EPA + CPOE: 0.023 (No. 21)
AY/A: 3.0 (No. 33)
QBR: 23.6 (No. 28)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.9 (No. 8)
2021: Matthew Stafford
EPA + CPOE: 0.129 (No. 6)
AY/A: 8.2 (No. 5)
QBR: 69.2 (No. 4)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.6 (No. 11)
Career: Matthew Stafford
AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 22.2
Key Matchup: WR Cooper Kupp vs. SCBs Dee Alford & Mike Ford
You know who Kupp is.
He’s the guy who last year led the league with an obscene 191 targets and 37 red-zone targets, which he leveraged into a Triple Crown 145-1,947-16 receiving stat line (per our Advanced Wide Receiver Stats Report). In 17 games, only thrice did Kupp have fewer than 10 targets (per our Weekly Target Report). And then in Week 1 he ran a route on 100% of QB Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks, played on 100% of the offensive snaps and went 13-128-1 receiving on 15 targets against a Bills defense that last year was No. 1 in pass DVOA (-23.0%).
Kupp is good.
And the Falcons defense is horrible in pass defense. Last year, it was No. 29 in pass DVOA (20.2%). Last week, it was No. 30 (5.3%).
In our internal FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Rams pass catchers as having a significant edge over the Falcons secondary.
Rank
WRs & TEs
Opp Secondary
Secondary Rank
Edge
5
LAR
ATL
17
12
The Falcons have strength on the perimeter with CBs A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward, but Kupp lines up most in the slot, where CBs Dee Alford (undrafted rookie) and Mike Ford (journeyman, 9.9 yards per target for career) played in Week 1.
Bet: Rams -10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Rams -10.5 (-106)
Personal Projection: Rams -12.25
Limit: Rams -11
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders
Check out our Cardinals at Raiders matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 3:25 pm ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium
TV: CBS
Cardinals at Raiders: Consensus Lines
Spread: Raiders -5.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Moneyline: Raiders -225, Cardinals +195
Cardinals at Raiders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
Spread: Raiders – 52% bets, 59% money
Over/Under: Over – 77% bets, 92% money
Moneyline: Cardinals – 39% bets, 96% money
Cardinals at Raiders: Key Injuries
Arizona Cardinals Injuries
WR DeAndre Hopkins (suspension): OUT
WR Antoine Wesley (groin, IR): OUT
G/T Cody Ford (ankle, IR): OUT
CB Antonio Hamilton (foot, PUP): OUT
S Charles Washington (chest, IR): OUT
QB Colt McCoy (calf, IR): OUT
TE Zach Ertz (calf): DNP on Wed.
WR Andy Isabella (back): DNP on Wed.
WR Rondale Moore (hamstring): DNP on Wed.
EDGE J.J. Watt (calf): DNP on Wed.
S Jalen Thompson (toe): DNP on Wed.
CB Trayvon Mullen (toe): LP on Wed.
LG Justin Pugh (neck): LP on Wed.
Cardinals Injury News
Las Vegas Raiders Injuries
CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT
C Andre James (concussion): DNP on Wed.
LB Denzel Perryman (ankle): DNP on Wed.
S Tre’von Moehrig (hip): DNP on Wed.
RB Brandon Bolden (hamstring): DNP on Wed.
Raiders Injury News
Cardinals at Raiders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Arizona Cardinals Trends
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 17-6-2 ATS (40.5% ROI) on road
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 18-8-2 ATS (32.5% ROI) as underdog
HC Kliff Kingsbury: 13-3-2 ATS (53.1% ROI) as road underdog
Las Vegas Raiders Trends
QB Derek Carr: 13-23-1 ATS (23.4% ROI for faders) as favorite
QB Derek Carr: 1-6-1 ATS (57.1% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team
Home Favorites: 342-404-25 (5.4% ROI for faders) off a loss
Cardinals at Raiders: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cardinals Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.006
19
0.067
22
3
Total SR
40.3%
24
45.3%
18
-6
Total DVOA
-14.4%
24
9.6%
20
-4
Cardinals Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.079
9
0.061
25
16
Total SR
46.8%
7
44.5%
15
8
Total DVOA
3.2%
15
0.6%
17
2
Arizona Cardinals Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Kyler Murray
EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 17)
AY/A: 6.9 (No. 17)
QBR: 52.9 (No. 13)
ATS Value vs. Average: 1.4 (No. 7)
2021: Kyler Murray
EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 8)
AY/A: 7.9 (No. 8)
QBR: 63.2 (No. 7)
ATS Value vs. Average: 2.8 (No. 7)
Career: Kyler Murray
AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 64.7
Raiders Offense vs. Cardinals Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.125
25
0.435
32
7
Total SR
42.9%
21
58.6%
32
11
Total DVOA
-30.5%
29
47.0%
32
3
Raiders Offense vs. Cardinals Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.001
20
-0.062
6
-14
Total SR
45.2%
13
43.9%
14
1
Total DVOA
-3.4%
19
-8.2%
6
-13
Las Vegas Raiders Quarterback Statistics
2022: Derek Carr
EPA + CPOE: 0.014 (No. 23)
AY/A: 5.4 (No. 25)
QBR: 26.9 (No. 26)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)
2021: Derek Carr
EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 16)
Career: Derek Carr
AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: 13.5
Key Matchup: QB Kyler Murray vs. Raiders Coverage Unit
Say what you want about his perennial second-half falloff: Murray is a top-10 quarterback — especially early in the year, before he has accumulated all the hits that come with the NFL season.
Yes, he’s without perimeter WRs DeAndre Hopkins (suspension) and Antoine Wesley (groin, IR). He might also be without slot WR Rondale Moore (hamstring).
But the Raiders also have issues. In Week 1, they allowed Chargers QB Justin Herbert to go off with 279-3-0 passing on a 76.5% completion rate and 10.0 AY/A. They were No. 30 in dropback EPA per play (0.483). And it’s not as if they were great last year in pass defense, rankings No. 26 in dropback EPA per play (0.167).
Part of the challenge for the Raiders is that they’ve experienced heavy turnover this offseason at cornerback, and so their back-end unit has little cohesion.
Last year, the Raiders top perimeter corners were Casey Hayward, Trayvon Mullen, Brandon Facyson and Desmond Trufant.
They’re all gone.
Replacing them are CBs Rock-Ya Sin and Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), the second of whom is already out with an injury, which means that last year’s No. 5 perimeter corner, Amik Robertson, is now starting. Yikes.
Returning from last year is slot CB Nate Hobbs, a 2021 fifth-rounder who has allowed an 81.4% completion rate for his career.
At safety the Raiders have the mediocre duo of Johnathan Abram and Tre’von Moehrig (hip), who didn’t practice on Wednesday. And LB Denzel Perryman (ankle), the team’s main off-ball coverage backer, also missed practice on Wednesday due to injury.
And the players are adjusting to a new scheme under DC Patrick Graham.
Within our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see Murray as having a significant edge against the Raiders defense in general and the secondary in particular.
Rank
Quarterback
Offense
Opp Defense
Defense Rank
Secondary Rank
QB-Def Edge
QB-Sec Edge
9
Kyler Murray
ARI
LV
23
26
14
17
In the offseason market, this line was Raiders -2.5. In the Thursday lookahead market last week, this number was still -2.5. The market reopened at -3 on Sunday night, the line quickly moved to -3.5 and within 24 hours it was at -5.5 and even -6, where it met resistance and was bet back down to -5.5.
This line is an overreaction to how badly the Cardinals looked against the Chiefs in Week 1. If Murray can be his usual self against a subpar Raiders secondary, the Cardinals will have a good chance to cover.
Bet: Cardinals +5.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Cardinals +5.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +1.5
Limit: Cardinals +3.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Bears at Packers matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
Location: Lambeau Field
TV: NBC
Bears at Packers: Consensus Lines
Spread: Packers -10
Over/Under: 42.5
Moneyline: Packers -475, Bears +360
Bears at Packers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 14.
Spread: Packers – 37% bets, 74% money
Over/Under: Under – 50% bets, 91% money
Moneyline: Bears – 61% bets, 68% money
Bears at Packers: Key Injuries
Chicago Bears Injuries
CB Tavon Young (leg, IR): OUT
G Dakota Dozier (knee, IR): OUT
OT Alex Leatherwood (illness, PUP): OUT
WR N’Keal Harry (ankle, IR): OUT
WR Velus Jones (hamstring): LP on Wed.
OT Riley Reiff (shoulder): LP on Wed.
Falcons Injury News
Green Bay Packers Injuries
LB Krys Barnes (ankle, IR): OUT
LG Jon Ruynan (concussion): DNP on Wed.
LT David Bakhtiari (knee): LP on Wed.
RT Elgton Jenkins (knee): LP on Wed.
WR Allen Lazard (ankle): LP on Wed.
Packers Injury News
Bears at Packers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Chicago Bears Trends
QB Justin Fields: 4-7 ATS (23.1% ROI for faders) overall
QB Justin Fields: 3-7 ATS (35.4% ROI for faders) as underdog
QB Justin Fields: 0-2 ATS (92.2% ROI for faders) vs. Packers
Green Bay Packers Trends
QB Aaron Rodgers: 65-34-4 ATS (27.1% ROI) at home
QB Aaron Rodgers: 48-30 ATS (20.4% ROI) in division
QB Aaron Rodgers: 26-12 ATS (33.6% ROI) at home in division
QB Aaron Rodgers: 20-7 ATS (44.8% ROI) vs. Bears
QB Aaron Rodgers: 38-27-2 ATS (13.2% ROI) in primetime
Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 32-18-2 ATS (25.4% ROI) in Week 2
Teams With Back-to-Back Divisional Games: 17-4-1 ATS (58.9% ROI) in Week 2 off a loss
Bears at Packers: Key Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.004
22
0.096
26
4
Total SR
32.7%
32
41.9%
11
-21
Total DVOA
-14.8%
25
25.3%
31
6
Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.087
29
0.02
19
-10
Total SR
41.4%
26
46.6%
26
0
Total DVOA
-13.6%
26
3.6%
22
-4
Chicago Bears Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 20 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Fields
EPA + CPOE: 0.011 (No. 28)
AY/A: 6.8 (No. 18)
QBR: 42.1 (No. 22)
ATS Value vs. Average: -1.8 (No. 31)
2021: Justin Fields
EPA + CPOE: 0.014 (No. 34)
AY/A: 5.8 (No. 28)
QBR: 31.4 (No. 31)
ATS Value vs. Average: -2.3 (No. 41)
Career: Justin Fields
AY/A: 5.8
QB Elo per Game: -100.5
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.192
29
-0.19
5
-24
Total SR
45.8%
13
40.6%
10
-3
Total DVOA
9.7%
14
-17.0%
7
-7
Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.136
3
0.032
22
19
Total SR
48.9%
3
44.5%
15
12
Total DVOA
20.2%
2
-0.9%
13
11
Green Bay Packers Quarterback Statistics
2022: Aaron Rodgers
EPA + CPOE: 0.013 (No. 27)
AY/A: 4.4 (No. 29)
QBR: 16.1 (No. 29)
ATS Value vs. Average: 2.8 (No. 5)
2021: Aaron Rodgers
EPA + CPOE: 0.176 (No. 1)
AY/A: 8.8 (No. 2)
QBR: 74.1 (No. 1)
ATS Value vs. Average: 4.1 (No. 2)
Career: Aaron Rodgers
AY/A: 8.4
QB Elo per Game: 82.0
Key Matchup: QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears Secondary
The Packers scored only seven points in Week 1, and Rodgers looked horrible with 22-of-34 for 195-0-1 passing, but the Packers were without LT David Bakhtiari (knee), RT Elgton Jenkins (knee) and No. 1 WR Allen Lazard (ankle), all of whom practiced on Wednesday and have a chance to return in Week 2.
The Packers suffered an embarrassing 38-3 road loss to the Saints in Week 1 last year — and then they went 13-3 the rest of the way and captured the No. 1 seed as Rodgers won his second straight MVP. The Packers are at Lambeau Field, plus …
Aaron Rodgers screaming “I still own you” at Bears fans is pretty badass pic.twitter.com/nEdPLjpuzN
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) October 17, 2021
… they’re facing the Bears.
I don’t think there’s a question as to whether Rodgers will bounce back in this game. The question is how big the bounceback will be.
The Bears enjoyed a great, weather-aided 19-10 victory as home underdogs to the 49ers last week, holding QB Trey Lance to 13-of-28 for 164-0-1 passing.
But that’s Lance — not Rodgers — and that happened in the pouring rain.
In our FantasyPros power rankings, Rodgers has a clear edge over the Bears defense in general and secondary in particular, both of which are bottom-four units.
Rank
Quarterback
Offense
Opp Defense
Defense Rank
Secondary Rank
QB-Def Edge
QB-Sec Edge
7
Aaron Rodgers
GB
CHI
30
29
23
22
The Bears specifically have two rookies starting in their secondary: SCB Kyler Gordon and SS Jaquan Brisker.
I expect to see Rodgers attack them heavily with Lazard and TE Robert Tonyan — perhaps his two most-trusted pass catchers.
Bet: Packers -10 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Packers -9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Packers -10.25
Limit: Packers -10
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
The five spreads I’ve highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
Chiefs -4.5 vs. Chargers
Steelers +1.5 vs. Patriots
Rams -10.5 vs. Falcons
Cardinals +5.5 at Raiders
Packers -9.5 vs. Bears
Also in consideration are:
Panthers +2.5 at Giants
Saints +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
Jaguars +4.5 vs. Colts
Cowboys +7.5 vs. Bengals
Bills -9.5 vs. Titans
In this expanded list, the Jaguars, Saints, and Panthers most catch my eye.
My personal projection shows some value on the Cowboys — especially through the key number of +7 — but I’m highly skeptical of backup QB Cooper Rush and the injured offensive lines.
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
Week 1 Record
Picks in articles and tracker: 5-3 (+1.75)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
NFL, Picks
Recent Comments